Author Archives: Paradox13

About Paradox13

Full time geek, part time suit.

Scott York is Right at Home

Posted on June 23, 2011 at 9:24 am by Paradox13 |

It’s a trending observation among Loudoun’s political establishment: Scott York has shifted way back to the right this year. He’s endorsed paleo-conservative clan scion Dick Black, developer-darling Ken Reid, and virulent homophobe Eugene Delgaudio with a now-famous hug. At Leesburg Patch, Jim Barnes distills York’s history and contrasts it with the campaign he’s running today.

This year, York surprised many observers by announcing his decision to run for the chairmanship as a Republican, which means that he will first have to defeat conservative Steve Stockman at the Republican convention to receive the party’s nomination. Another surprise came when York and Delgaudio expressed support for one another and literally embraced one another. Strange bedfellows, indeed!

York has now publicly endorsed Dick Black for the Virginia State Senate. When serving in the House of Delegates, Black was regarded as one of the most conservative members of the General Assembly, known mostly for his crusades and political stunts in opposition to abortion, gay rights, and “pornography” in the libraries.

York also recently secured the endorsement of Black’s son-in-law, Mick Staton, who served on the Board from 2004-2007, and who was a member of the coalition that stripped York of some of his powers. – Jim Barnes

It’s telling that Mr. York sought the endorsement of Mick Staton. Mr. Staton is a man who helped disempower the Board Chair to the point where Mr. York had to seek recourse from the General Assembly in Richmond to restore his authority. It is also telling that Mr. York has spent the past four years endorsing and working with our great Democratic leaders, like Kelly Burk and Mark Herring, only to abandon his principles and friendship in order to secure his right to the Chairmanship nomination from the Loudoun Republicans.

Mr. Barnes is right to speculate, “But I also can’t help but wonder if his endorsements of Delgaudio, Black and others will be hard to digest for independents and Democrats who have supported York in the past, but who may find Democrat Tom Bellanca to be the more appealing candidate in the general election this fall.” Tom Bellanca is a knowledgeable, passionate businessman from the Dulles area, and a long-time member of Loudoun’s community. His quiet, consensus-building leadership is the antidote for the severe, and attention-grabbing shift of Scott York. Or rather, an appropriate answer to Mr. York’s return to his roots on the far right of Loudoun’s political spectrum.

Of Power Towers and Trees

Posted on June 22, 2011 at 12:52 pm by Paradox13 |

Two of Loudoun’s more loquacious activists and commentators have entered into a bit of a debate at Leesburg Today. Leesburg’s own Ann Robinson wrote a thoughtful letter about power lines, trees, development and piorities, framed in the context of a long drive she recently took.

Looking out my balcony windows this morning, I see a steely high voltage tower where just over a year ago, huge evergreens graced the view, shielding my community from both noise and pollution. The air is dirtier, the atmosphere filled with the sight and sound of nonstop traffic, with the very ugly reality of high tension wires cutting a scar across the town. Was this degradation absolutely necessary to bring electric power to those who need it? No. The wires could have been run underground-but someone convinced the powers that be that the cost would be too high.

Too high for whom? I would have paid more for electricity in order to maintain the pollution shield of large old-growth trees. Their contribution to the health and well-being of my family and me is immeasurable. Who knows how our lives are now shortened by the combination of dirty air, tension and high voltage electrical wires constantly overhead. Surely, if we the consumers could have paid a little more and the electric company’s investors accepted a little less in ROI, then we could have saved our quality of life. – Ann Robinson

I, for one, happen to agree with Ann on this one, and have been a proponent of full undergrounding of major power lines for a few years now. Ann’s letter illustrates the unrecouped cost of decisions to act, or not act, made by our elected leaders years ago. Dominion earns billions in profit, even while sometimes failing to do their essential job. I think we can and should insist that companies like Dominion repay us, the public, for the unfunded costs to our land and community that they impose as part of their business. It doesn’t matter whether those costs are lost old-growth trees, or more traffic, or the need for more schools. If your business decisions directly incur a cost on the public, you should be responsible for offsetting that cost in some manner. We should get our fair share, and you should pay your fair share. That is my choice, and my priority.
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Keith’s Back

Posted on June 20, 2011 at 12:03 pm by Paradox13 |

Countdown is back, on Current TV (Comcast 107, FiOS 192), 8pm, tonight. Here’s a taste of what’s been missing, and why I, for one, am glad it’ll be back.

Follow below the fold for the video.
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Dave Butler Stands Alone

Posted on June 17, 2011 at 9:07 am by Paradox13 |

The Loudoun Times-Mirror carries the story of Jim Magner’s withdrawl from the race for the Democratic nomination in DEL-10.

“First, the creation of this new district offers a real opportunity for the democratic party to make a difference both in Richmond and here in Loudoun County, and I feel that a protracted primary fight would only hinder the party’s chances for realizing that potential in the general election,” he said in a statement.

In addition, Magner, an attorney with Washington, D.C.-based Leiser, Leiser & Hennessy, said a recent victory in Loudoun County Circuit Court has caused a drastic increase in the demands on his law practice and has “left me unable to dedicate the time needed to effectively manage may campaign.”

Magner’s client, Daniel Campos of Sterling, was recently awarded $282,000 in compensatory damages in a case against retail giant Wal-Mart. Campos was allegedly accosted and accused of shoplifting by Wal-Mart security guards.

In his statement, Magner said he is pledging his support for fellow Democrat Butler.

First, thank you to Mr. Magner for his efforts to defend the rights of our neighbors, like Mr. Campos, in court. Our community benefits greatly from his service as a defender of those rights in cases like the one cited above. And thanks also for pledging support for Councilman Butler, a man positioned to make a real difference in Richmond.

Dave Butler held a series of kickoff events for his Delegate campaign this past weekend. He traveled from Leesburg to Winchester, the length of the 10th District, making the case for his candidacy. He talked about his family, and his experience as a businessman and father in Loudoun county. He talked about his service on the Town Council, and his experience bridging divides to find answers to difficult questions of public concern. And Dave talked about what was missing. He talked about how our area does not get its fair share from Richmond, and how we can, and should, have a Delegate who will fight for us, and our jobs.

In that, he stands alone as a candidate for the 10th District. While others vying for the seat talk about blame and platitudinous issues that Delegates do not deal with, Dave Butler shares his experience with us and focuses on what can be done, now, to address the needs of the 10th District. We will do well to elect him to the General Assembly on November 8th.

Originalism is a Logical Fallacy

Posted on June 15, 2011 at 8:57 am by Paradox13 |

I’ve always been fundamentally uncomfortable with the theory of original intent. Ever since learning about Constitutional interpretation from Professor Abraham at UVA, the idea that our Constitution should be interpreted as the people who wrote its constituent parts would have intended just did not sit right with me. And it wasn’t just because different authors had different intents in ratifying the exact same language at the time of passage. Last night, I realized why Originalism bugged me.

At its most basic, the theory of original intent for Constitutional interpretation is nothing more than an argument from authority, one of the most simple and fundamental logical fallacies. Indeed, it is a prime example of the special case of the argument from authority: the argument from antiquity.

As such, interpreting the Constitution based on original intent is building a house on a foundation of sand. All the reasoning on top of the interpretation may be consistent, and closely argued (and most of our Justices are excellent at constructing such reasoned arguments), but if the interpretation stands solely on the assertion that “the original authors meant this,” then it is assuming that the wisdom of the original authors is greater, and of more authority, than the wisdom of people today.

And if that were true, if the wisdom of the old were always better than the wisdom of the new, then it would be impossible to justify any changes to the Constitution, whatsoever! The mere fact that we have Amended the Constitution, and made our nation a “more perfect union” as a result, time and time again (27 times at last count), provides strong evidence that the wisdom of those earlier authors was insufficient, and required revisions based on new knowledge and understanding.

I’m not a lawyer, but the Constitution does not belong to lawyers and judges. It belongs to all of us. What it is, and what it means, is the property of every American, not just those with special knowledge and training. I believe, and believe strongly, that a correct interpretation of the Constitution is based not solely on what the authors intended, but also on where America stands today, and where we are in the arc of history towards justice.

But that’s just my opinion. I don’t claim to be an authority.

Where Do I Vote in Loudoun (Preliminary)?

Posted on June 2, 2011 at 7:05 pm by Paradox13 |

Every year, the pressing question leading up to Election Day is often not “who will I vote for,” but rather, “where do I vote, again?” The “who do I vote for” question, after all, derives from your voting precinct, as our elected officials represent Districts determined (mostly) by precinct lines.

With a tip-o-the-hat to folks from the Loudoun County Board of Elections, here is a preliminary, unofficial list of the precincts in Loudoun County which will be in place for the November 8 elections this year, organized by (new) Magisterial (i.e., Supervisor) Districts. As an added bonus, the State Senate and House of Delegates District numbers are also provided, so you can look up who is running. For example, SEN-33 is Senator Mark Herring’s District, while DEL-87 is where Mike Kondratick is running and DEL-10 is where Dave Butler is running.

Follow below the jump for the full list.
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Going On Electoral Offense

Posted on May 27, 2011 at 12:44 pm by Paradox13 |

It’s nice to see the Obama Administration going on electoral offense, process-wise. Specifically, pushing for immigrants who are eligible to become citizens to take that step and become citizens, and of course with citizenship, get the right to vote.

The multilingual effort aims to reach roughly 7.9 million immigrants who are eligible to file applications to naturalize but haven’t done so. Many immigrants work, raise a family and go to school while holding green cards and only think about citizenship when they need to travel or abroad or when elections roll around and they can’t vote, immigration officials said.

The campaign in print, radio and digital media that will run primarily in California, New York, Florida and Texas between May 30 and Labor Day aims to put citizenship in the forefront of people’s minds and give them personal stories of immigrants who have naturalized. San Francisco Chronicle

Given the process involved with gaining full citizenship, this is less a play for 2012 (which seems to be looking better for the President’s re-election prospects) than 2016, a year in which Florida will (as always) be critical, and depending on population and political trending, Texas may actually be in play for the Democrats.

This is just smart politics. The immigrant population overwhelmingly supports Democratic candidates, and the process of gaining citizenship is one likely to get them energized and engaged in the political system. And best of all, this is good for the country, as those citizens are given a stake in the nation’s future with their rights, and such long-term thinking is what we need right now.

Great move by our President’s Administration.

You know, out of touch.

Posted on May 24, 2011 at 9:16 pm by Paradox13 |

Leesburg Patch has a great article up about former Supervisor, and LCRC candidate for Board of Supervisors Chair, Steve Stockman. It illustrates Mr. Stockman’s status as a candidate with little connection with the reality lived by people here in Loudoun County, as well as his limitations as a candidate.

Steve Stockman’s only care seems to be a single issue, “taxes,” with little or no comprehension of the myriad things that drive that issue. For example, the incredible growth in the school population since he last served on the Board has a huge, and largely unavoidable, impact on the revenue necessary to run the LCPS, the largest single driver of the county tax rate. Mr. Stockman’s position seems to be that we can set a low tax rate and let all the necessary services simply wither to accommodate that rate. Of course, recent court cases have demonstrated that to be a fundamentally flawed assumption. In California, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered the state to release inmates since Gov. Schwarzenegger and his allies decided to grossly underfund their prison system. In New Jersey, the State Supreme Court ordered Gov. Christie to fund underperforming schools, over the efforts of the Gov. and his allies to let school spending wither. Mr. Stockman’s “cut and wither” policy proposals do not lead to lower taxes, they lead to lawsuits. And didn’t we have enough of those under the last Board?

But perhaps nothing illustrates Mr. Stockman’s inability to comprehend the realities of living in the County he seeks to lead like this quote:

Some issues of great concern to some candidates are of little concern to Stockman, such as transportation, which he considers “not that big” of an issue because people choose where to live.

“You can make improvements around the margins, but people will decide to live and commute based on their own individual choices,” he said. “You know, commuting, it’s all voluntary.” – Leesburg Patch

Or this quote, detailing his opposition to Metro to Dulles.

While the current board of supervisors has signaled concerns about the Metro project – primarily that if the Washington Metropolitan Airports Authority wants a more costly underground station, it should find the money without tolls or local tax dollars – Stockman is cool to the idea for other reasons.

“I’m not too enthusiastic,” he said. “I know we want it to [Dulles] airport and a lot of people think it’s going to be a godsend. I don’t think it is. I think that American people prefer to have private transportation. Mostly, right now, Metro’s running at a deficit. “

Now, I know Mr. Stockman owns his own company, and therefore hasn’t had to find a decent paying job and a place to live recently. And as the article points out, his kids have long since moved out, so he doesn’t have to worry about ferrying them to events, or taking schools into account along with commute, home prices, cost of living, and other factors when looking for somewhere to live. So maybe, in that context, he could be forgiven his appalling ignorance of the impact of long commutes on Loudoun families (not to mention our environment and the attendant traffic externalities that impact the quality of life for everyone in Loudoun).

But in the context of being a candidate to Chair the Board of Supervisors? In that context, the ignorance and lack of concern for one of the most important realities for all of us in Loudoun – commuting – is enough to disqualify him as a serious candidate for office.

Or, rather, it should disqualify him. Whether it does is up to the LCRC.

Winning the House of Delegates

Posted on May 23, 2011 at 4:33 pm by Paradox13 |

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is the arm of the Democratic Party that works to elect Democrats to state (and commonwealth) legislatures. This critical, but little noticed, piece of machinery is responsible for tracking election results for a huge number of elections, every year. Because of the sheer number and variety of races involved, it is a lot easier to draw assumptions about electoral trends from these state legislature races than from, say, a single US Senate or House special election. And the trending for Democrats at the state level this year is a lot better than it was in 2010.

In the last three months, we’ve noticed a startling trend: Since March 1st, Democratic candidates have overperformed in almost every similar special election compared to the Democrats who ran in the same districts in 2010.

This is a truly stunning turnaround. The conventional wisdom says that all else being equal (though it never is), a lower-profile election will produce a more Republican electorate. Therefore, a presidential year like 2008 should see better Democratic performance than a midterm like 2010, which in turn should see better Democratic performance than an odd-year special election.

But ever since the radicalism of the GOP’s assault on working families had a chance to sink in nationally, we’ve begun to see the opposite. Democratic special election candidates are now performing about 9.7% better than the Democratic candidates who ran in the exact same districts in 2010. – DLCC

The DLCC analysis goes on to state that the Wisconsin Recall elections will provide a wealth more data to be added to the analysis. Even without the Wisconsin results, an average improvement in 9.7% in special elections is incredible.

I mention this because here in Virginia Democrats seem to write off the House of Delegates. Even some of my favorite Delegate candidates speak of serving in the minority in Richmond. But by my estimation, there are no fewer than twelve seats in the House of Delegates that would have been flipped from Republican to Democrat in 2009, if the Democrat had won 9.7% more of the vote. That would have easily flipped control of the House of Delegates from Republicans to Democrats. And this is before Redistricting – Redistricting which has added even more seats from Democratic Northern Virginia.

The first step towards winning a majority is starting from the belief that you can (though not necessarily will) win a majority. The analysis from the DLCC shows that there may be a wind at the backs of Democratic state legislative candidates, a wind that will blow into November for us here in Virginia. So let’s start talking like we’re going to win, because we can, and we should, and if we work hard enough to make it happen, we will.